Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Unknownwin 1:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:0
EgoBoysloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Unknown
Crystal Maiden
Yadomi · 1 game
Earth Spirit
Wij · 1 game
Marsoften banned
drakeel · 1 game
Templar Assassin
Robo-Z · 1 game
Weaver
Berna · 1 game
EgoBoys
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
10 picks · 19 bans
Void Spirit
10 picks · 13 bans
Earth Spirit
9 picks · 6 bans
Puck
8 picks · 21 bans
Brewmaster
7 picks · 2 bans
Ember Spirit
7 picks · 7 bans
Crystal Maiden
6 picks · 0 bans
Juggernaut
6 picks · 6 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 56%
Hero pool strength58% Team Unknown
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Team Unknown
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:14
Team Unknown 58%EgoBoys 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Unknown — the game was taken by Team Unknown in 30:49.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Unknown · 58%
Series resultTeam Unknown 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1