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DreamLeague Season 30. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Resiliencewin 2:1
series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Cloud Risingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Resilience

Pangolier
Pangolier
Echo · 17 games
59%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
zzq · 16 games
63%
Kez
Kezsignature
poyoyo · 12 games
75%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Echo · 9 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
pLAnet · 9 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Echo · 9 games
56%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
niu · 9 games
67%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
poyoyo · 8 games
38%

Cloud Rising

Necrophos
Necrophossignature
Yumeyume · 7 games
71%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Ice Coke · 6 games
33%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Yumeyume · 6 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
Q7 · 6 games
33%
Bane
Baneoften banned
Undyne_ · 5 games
60%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Q7 · 5 games
80%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
谢乐zzz张泽中 · 5 games
60%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Ice Coke · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
516 picks · 335 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
445 picks · 239 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
401 picks · 180 bans
53%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
351 picks · 324 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
331 picks · 507 bans
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
298 picks · 291 bans
53%
Windranger
Windranger
292 picks · 132 bans
51%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
290 picks · 511 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% Team Resilience
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total86% Team Resilience
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:36
Team Resilience 73%Cloud Rising 27%
The model gave 73% on Team Resilience — the game was taken by Cloud Rising in 50:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
Kezpoyoyo
52% · 118 games46% · 169 games
ViperQ7
Viper
Puck
PuckEcho
56% · 163 games50% · 56 games
SlarkYumeyume
Slark
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightniu
43% · 92 games46% · 113 games
BrewmasterSrf
Brewmaster
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctorzzq
55% · 55 games53% · 145 games
Winter WyvernUndyne_
Winter Wyvern
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterTK
51% · 55 games
Game 2prediction correct33:14
Team Resilience 72%Cloud Rising 28%
The model gave 72% on Team Resilience — the game was taken by Team Resilience in 35:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
Clinkzpoyoyo
46% · 79 games45% · 546 games
TinyYumeyume
Tiny
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritEcho
55% · 172 games49% · 174 games
LinaQ7
Lina
Pangolier
Pangolierniu
50% · 263 games49% · 339 games
DoomSrf
Doom
Windranger
WindrangerTK
48% · 343 games58% · 280 games
Winter WyvernUndyne_
Winter Wyvern
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkzzq
48% · 482 games
Game 3prediction correct44:14
Team Resilience 70%Cloud Rising 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Resilience — the game was taken by Team Resilience in 36:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
Kezpoyoyo
54% · 173 games45% · 100 games
ClinkzYumeyume
Clinkz
Void Spirit
Void SpiritEcho
43% · 155 games52% · 197 games
DoomSrf
Doom
Brewmaster
Brewmasterniu
49% · 110 games52% · 156 games
Earth SpiritQ7
Earth Spirit
Dark Willow
Dark WillowTK
52% · 221 game51% · 357 games
TuskUndyne_
Tusk
Bane
Banezzq
52% · 151 game
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Resilience · 86%
Series resultTeam Resilience 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3