Resp Gaming vs the goal of all life is death — prediction DS3ЗК · Dota 2

DreamLeague Season 30. Закрытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

RGResp Gamingwin 2:1

series probability

48%52%

probability at match start · final 2:1

TGthe goal of all life is deathloss 1:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Resp Gaming

No games played over 6 months.

the goal of all life is death

Nature's Prophetoften banned

Summer · 2 games

Linaoften banned

Night · 1 game

Pangolier

Night · 1 game

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Hoodwink

513 picks · 330 bans

49%

Dark Willow

437 picks · 236 bans

51%

Mirana

399 picks · 178 bans

53%

Winter Wyvern

349 picks · 318 bans

58%

Ember Spirit

327 picks · 503 bans

56%

Centaur Warrunner

297 picks · 287 bans

53%

Windranger

288 picks · 130 bans

51%

Earth Spirit

287 picks · 506 bans

53%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%

Hero pool strength58% Resp Gaming

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total52% the goal of all life is death

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct30:34

Resp Gaming 49%the goal of all life is death 51%

The model gave 51% on the goal of all life is death — the game was taken by the goal of all life is death in 39:40.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo