mudgolems vs Brame — prediction DPC2S—ЗК 1 · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

mudgolemswin 2:1

series probability

50%50%

probability at match start · final 2:1

Brameloss 1:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

mudgolems

No games played over 6 months.

Brame

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Mars

9 picks · 18 bans

54%

Void Spirit

9 picks · 12 bans

62%

Earth Spirit

7 picks · 5 bans

64%

Ember Spirit

7 picks · 6 bans

82%

Brewmaster

6 picks · 2 bans

70%

Keeper of the Light

6 picks · 6 bans

70%

Mirana

6 picks · 9 bans

70%

Kunkka

5 picks · 6 bans

33%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%

Hero pool strength50% mudgolems

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total50% mudgolems

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed37:13

mudgolems 49%Brame 51%

The model gave 51% on Brame — the game was taken by mudgolems in 34:22.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo