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DreamLeague Season 30. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Cloud Risingwin 2:0
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Cloud Dawningloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Cloud Rising

Axe
Axeoften banned
Ice Coke · 6 games
33%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Yumeyume · 5 games
40%
Necrophos
Necrophosoften banned
Yumeyume · 5 games
60%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Q7 · 5 games
80%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
Q7 · 5 games
20%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
谢乐zzz张泽中 · 5 games
60%
Bane
Baneoften banned
Undyne_ · 4 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
Ice Coke · 4 games
50%

Cloud Dawning

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
513 picks · 330 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
437 picks · 236 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
399 picks · 178 bans
53%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
349 picks · 318 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
327 picks · 503 bans
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
297 picks · 287 bans
53%
Windranger
Windranger
288 picks · 130 bans
51%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
287 picks · 506 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% Cloud Dawning
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total57% Cloud Rising
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:26
Cloud Rising 57%Cloud Dawning 43%
The model gave 57% on Cloud Rising — the game was taken by Cloud Rising in 49:23.
Game 2prediction correct30:26
Cloud Rising 57%Cloud Dawning 43%
The model gave 57% on Cloud Rising — the game was taken by Cloud Rising in 49:23.
Game 3prediction correct39:30
Cloud Rising 57%Cloud Dawning 43%
The model gave 57% on Cloud Rising — the game was taken by Cloud Rising in 52:37.
Model check result
Model favoriteCloud Rising · 57%
Series resultCloud Rising 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3