Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Hellbear Smashersloss 1:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Alliancewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hellbear Smashers
No games played over 6 months.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
9 picks · 18 bans
Void Spirit
9 picks · 12 bans
Earth Spirit
7 picks · 5 bans
Ember Spirit
7 picks · 6 bans
Brewmaster
6 picks · 2 bans
Keeper of the Light
6 picks · 6 bans
Mirana
6 picks · 9 bans
Kunkka
5 picks · 6 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Hellbear Smashers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:9
Hellbear Smashers 50%Alliance 50%
The model gave 50% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Alliance in 24:47.
Game 2prediction correct39:19
Hellbear Smashers 50%Alliance 50%
The model gave 50% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 43:02.
Game 3prediction missed10:41
Hellbear Smashers 50%Alliance 50%
The model gave 50% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Alliance in 26:30.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellbear Smashers · 50%
Series resultAlliance 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3