DreamLeague Season 30. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Cloud Dawningloss 1:2series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 1:2
ZZenithwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Cloud Dawning
No games played over 6 months.
Zenith
Mirana
LOyd · 3 games
Pangolier
MamangDaya · 3 games
Techiesoften banned
LOyd · 3 games
Windranger
CatYou · 3 games
Anti-Mage
Ulu · 2 games
Baneoften banned
LOyd · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
MamangDaya · 2 games
Gyrocopter
CatYou · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
531 picks · 352 bans
Dark Willow
465 picks · 259 bans
Mirana
413 picks · 184 bans
Winter Wyvern
366 picks · 340 bans
Ember Spirit
342 picks · 522 bans
Windranger
316 picks · 145 bans
Centaur Warrunner
299 picks · 296 bans
Earth Spirit
299 picks · 529 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 70%
Hero pool strength54% Zenith
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Zenith
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:17
Cloud Dawning 34%Zenith 66%
The model gave 66% on Zenith — the game was taken by Cloud Dawning in 29:08.
Game 2prediction correct20:43
Cloud Dawning 34%Zenith 66%
The model gave 66% on Zenith — the game was taken by Zenith in 58:05.
Game 3prediction correct11:33
Cloud Dawning 34%Zenith 66%
The model gave 66% on Zenith — the game was taken by Zenith in 38:46.
Model check result
Model favoriteZenith · 66%
Series resultZenith 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3