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EPL Championship Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Monkey Businessloss 1:2
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Zero Tenacitywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Monkey Business

Phoenix
Phoenix
n0tail · 3 games
100%
Tusk
Tusk
Pablo · 3 games
67%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Pablo · 3 games
67%
Omniknight
Omniknight
Shad · 2 games
100%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
n0tail · 1 game
100%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Ceb · 1 game
100%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Topson · 1 game
100%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Topson · 1 game
100%

Zero Tenacity

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Se · 41 game
61%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 39 games
54%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Se · 30 games
60%
Underlord
Underlord
Nefrit · 28 games
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
dEsire · 27 games
59%
Warlock
Warlock
Se · 27 games
41%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Kami · 26 games
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 26 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
547 picks · 816 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
509 picks · 367 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
470 picks · 645 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
456 picks · 575 bans
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
390 picks · 738 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
355 picks · 577 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
343 picks · 472 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
337 picks · 536 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 63%
Hero pool strength55% Monkey Business
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:58
Monkey Business 39%Zero Tenacity 61%
The model gave 61% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 1:20:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerShad
50% · 35 games57% · 217 games
Monkey KingKami
Monkey King
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightTopson
46% · 300 games49% · 170 games
Shadow FiendWorick
Shadow Fiend
Jakiro
JakiroCeb
49% · 490 games53% · 243 games
TidehunterNefrit
Tidehunter
Undying
Undyingn0tail
46% · 113 games49% · 129 games
Skywrath MagedEsire
Skywrath Mage
Hoodwink
HoodwinkPablo
47% · 194 games54% · 373 games
RingmasterMoOz
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction missed27:12
Monkey Business 37%Zero Tenacity 63%
The model gave 63% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Monkey Business in 31:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightTopson
50% · 429 games54% · 121 game
Shadow FiendWorick
Shadow Fiend
Razor
RazorShad
44% · 41 game50% · 221 game
AbaddonKami
Abaddon
Phoenix
Phoenixn0tail
52% · 174 games55% · 269 games
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
Centaur Warrunner
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerPablo
51% · 56 games45% · 262 games
SnapfireMoOz
Snapfire
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonCeb
44% · 283 games56% · 110 games
MarcidEsire
Marci
Game 3prediction correct5:37
Monkey Business 39%Zero Tenacity 61%
The model gave 61% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 30:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterShad
53% · 315 games52% · 252 games
AbaddonKami
Abaddon
Morphling
MorphlingTopson
51% · 169 games45% · 179 games
DawnbreakerNefrit
Dawnbreaker
Brewmaster
Brewmastern0tail
47% · 67 games53% · 304 games
Ember SpiritWorick
Ember Spirit
Tusk
TuskPablo
48% · 474 games54% · 295 games
WarlockMoOz
Warlock
Io
IoCeb
42% · 41 game51% · 36 games
GrimstrokedEsire
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 72%
Series resultZero Tenacity 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3