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ESL One Birmingham 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 1:2
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Disruptor
Disruptor
Riddys · 24 games
54%
Warlock
Warlock
Riddys · 24 games
58%
Bane
Banesignature
Zayac · 22 games
77%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Zayac · 22 games
64%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Riddys · 20 games
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Niku · 17 games
59%
Mars
Marsoften banned
pma · 17 games
59%
Dazzle
Dazzle
Riddys · 16 games
50%

Nigma Galaxy

Mars
Marsoften banned
No!ob · 25 games
44%
Muerta
Muerta
SumaiL · 23 games
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 20 games
55%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
SumaiL · 18 games
50%
Bane
Banesignature
OmaR · 17 games
76%
Puck
Puckoften banned
SumaiL · 17 games
53%
Pugna
Pugna
GH · 17 games
41%
Tusk
Tusk
GH · 17 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
545 picks · 815 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
507 picks · 367 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
469 picks · 644 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
455 picks · 574 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
389 picks · 737 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
355 picks · 577 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
342 picks · 470 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
336 picks · 534 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 40%
Hero pool strength53% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total79% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:21
Natus Vincere 68%Nigma Galaxy 32%
The model gave 68% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 45:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
Razorgotthejuice
43% · 48 games55% · 229 games
Morphlingrincyq
Morphling
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNiku
56% · 389 games51% · 379 games
BeastmasterSumaiL
Beastmaster
Tidehunter
Tidehunterpma
50% · 289 games53% · 304 games
BristlebackNo!ob
Bristleback
Warlock
WarlockRiddys
52% · 474 games47% · 601 game
JakiroGH
Jakiro
Tusk
TuskZayac
48% · 576 games42% · 263 games
Dark WillowOmaR
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction missed31:24
Natus Vincere 68%Nigma Galaxy 32%
The model gave 68% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 48:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightgotthejuice
46% · 302 games54% · 85 games
Clinkzrincyq
Clinkz
Mars
Marspma
47% · 183 games49% · 520 games
Storm SpiritSumaiL
Storm Spirit
Tiny
TinyNiku
42% · 389 games50% · 294 games
TidehunterNo!ob
Tidehunter
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonZayac
55% · 214 games53% · 347 games
Shadow ShamanOmaR
Shadow Shaman
Warlock
WarlockRiddys
42% · 317 games62% · 159 games
Keeper of the LightGH
Keeper of the Light
Game 3prediction missed14:34
Natus Vincere 68%Nigma Galaxy 32%
The model gave 68% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 41:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassingotthejuice
50% · 263 games51% · 308 games
Abaddonrincyq
Abaddon
Timbersaw
TimbersawNiku
54% · 224 games47% · 180 games
Void SpiritSumaiL
Void Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerpma
52% · 401 game56% · 281 game
BristlebackNo!ob
Bristleback
Tusk
TuskZayac
50% · 510 games44% · 484 games
JakiroGH
Jakiro
Elder Titan
Elder TitanRiddys
50% · 125 games47% · 270 games
HoodwinkOmaR
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 79%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3