Team SMG vs Nigma Galaxy SEA — prediction DPC2S—ЗК 1 · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

Team SMGloss 0:2

series probability

50%50%

probability at match start · final 0:2

Nigma Galaxy SEAwin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team SMG

Abaddon

ninjaboogie · 1 game

Anti-Mage

vtFαded · 1 game

Chaos Knight

Mushi · 1 game

Death Prophet

Mushi · 1 game

Earth Spirit

AhFu · 1 game

Lich

ninjaboogie · 1 game

Lina

AhFu · 1 game

Monkey King

vtFαded · 1 game

Nigma Galaxy SEA

Ogre Magi

343 · 2 games

Juggernaut

Ghost · 1 game

Riki

Ghost · 1 game

Storm Spirit

AlaCrity · 1 game

Templar Assassin

AlaCrity · 1 game

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Void Spirit

5 picks · 6 bans

67%

Earth Spirit

4 picks · 1 bans

63%

Mirana

4 picks · 2 bans

75%

Ogre Magi

4 picks · 0 bans

50%

Tiny

4 picks · 2 bans

50%

Vengeful Spirit

4 picks · 3 bans

25%

Brewmaster

3 picks · 2 bans

71%

Kunkka

3 picks · 2 bans

43%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)40% vs 40%

Hero pool strength52% Team SMG

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total50% Team SMG

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct12:24

Team SMG 49%Nigma Galaxy SEA 51%

The model gave 51% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 36:34.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo