Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Cignal Ultraloss 1:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Omega Esportswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Cignal Ultra
Anti-Mage
Abat · 1 game
Kunkka
Jamesy · 1 game
Phantom Assassin
Abat · 1 game
Sand King
Jamesy · 1 game
Terrorblade
Abat · 1 game
Ursa
Jamesy · 1 game
Omega Esports
Omniknight
cml · 2 games
Tiny
Boomy · 2 games
Vengeful Spirit
Mac · 2 games
Weaver
Tino- · 2 games
Death Prophet
Mac · 1 game
Necrophos
Bok · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Earth Spirit
4 picks · 1 bans
Mirana
4 picks · 2 bans
Vengeful Spirit
4 picks · 2 bans
Brewmaster
3 picks · 2 bans
Puck
3 picks · 7 bans
Tiny
3 picks · 2 bans
Void Spirit
3 picks · 5 bans
Weaver
3 picks · 3 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 40%
Hero pool strength61% Cignal Ultra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Cignal Ultra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:14
Cignal Ultra 51%Omega Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on Cignal Ultra — the game was taken by Cignal Ultra in 35:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordAbat
JuggernautTino-
MarsJamesy
Storm SpiritMac
little data
Void SpiritBoomy
little data
ViperBok
little data
Undyingcml
Game 2prediction correct16:30
Cignal Ultra 49%Omega Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on Omega Esports — the game was taken by Omega Esports in 34:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaAbat
MorphlingTino-
KunkkaJamesy
Ember SpiritMac
little data
EarthshakerBoomy
little data
SlardarBok
little data
Ogre Magicml
Game 3prediction missed9:29
Cignal Ultra 50%Omega Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on Cignal Ultra — the game was taken by Omega Esports in 21:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerAbat
AlchemistTino-
Sand KingJamesy
Void SpiritMac
little data
PangolierBok
little data
TinyBoomy
little data
Ogre Magicml
Model check result
Model favoriteCignal Ultra · 50%
Series resultOmega Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3