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EPL Championship Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rune Eaterswin 2:0
series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Spirit Academyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Rune Eaters

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
ani-san · 52 games
62%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
monodrama · 45 games
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ethereal · 39 games
54%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Ethereal · 33 games
42%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
monodrama · 28 games
79%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
ani-san · 28 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
Ankou · 25 games
52%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Ankou · 25 games
64%

Team Spirit Academy

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Aidar · 13 games
15%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Aidar · 12 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
rubikon155 · 10 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
SunshineRR · 9 games
22%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
SunshineRR · 9 games
44%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
SunshineRR · 8 games
25%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
kyford · 8 games
38%
Techies
Techies
Aidar · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
545 picks · 815 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
507 picks · 367 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
469 picks · 644 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
453 picks · 574 bans
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
388 picks · 736 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
354 picks · 577 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
341 picks · 470 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
334 picks · 534 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 38%
Hero pool strength60% Rune Eaters
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total84% Rune Eaters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:22
Rune Eaters 71%Team Spirit Academy 29%
The model gave 71% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 35:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunayowaai
41% · 29 games44% · 52 games
Weaverrubikon155
Weaver
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritEthereal
55% · 382 games37% · 8 games
Necrophos86
Necrophos
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerAnkou
55% · 256 games50% · 173 games
Dark SeerSunshineRR
Dark Seer
Windranger
Windrangerani-san
45% · 179 games47% · 373 games
TinyAidar
Tiny
Treant Protector
Treant Protectormonodrama
62% · 24 games52% · 264 games
Warlockkyford
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct21:10
Rune Eaters 71%Team Spirit Academy 29%
The model gave 71% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 29:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingyowaai
54% · 247 games45% · 284 games
Gyrocopterrubikon155
Gyrocopter
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainEthereal
48% · 383 games50% · 294 games
Ember Spirit86
Ember Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerAnkou
53% · 455 games44% · 287 games
MarsSunshineRR
Mars
Treant Protector
Treant Protectormonodrama
63% · 53 games45% · 303 games
TinyAidar
Tiny
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonani-san
56% · 342 games46% · 312 games
Warlockkyford
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 84%
Series resultRune Eaters 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2