Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
496 Gamingwin 2:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Execrationloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
496 Gaming
Brewmaster
Red · 2 games
Ancient Apparition
Bombi · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
Bombi · 1 game
Earth Spirit
NARMAN · 1 game
Tiny
NARMAN · 1 game
Execration
Mars
Rupido · 2 games
Faceless Void
Yowe · 1 game
Mirana
Ken · 1 game
Puck
Ken · 1 game
Undyingoften banned
RR · 1 game
Witch Doctor
RR · 1 game
Wraith King
Yowe · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mirana
4 picks · 2 bans
Puck
3 picks · 5 bans
Tiny
3 picks · 2 bans
Void Spirit
3 picks · 4 bans
Weaver
3 picks · 1 bans
Anti-Mage
2 picks · 1 bans
Brewmaster
2 picks · 1 bans
Death Prophet
2 picks · 1 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% 496 Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct51:30
496 Gaming 51%Execration 49%
The model gave 51% on 496 Gaming — the game was taken by 496 Gaming in 43:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BrewmasterRed
Wraith KingYowe
Earth SpiritNARMAN
InvokerKen
Winter WyvernBombi
Vengeful SpiritRupido
little data
Witch DoctorRR
Game 2prediction correct56:20
496 Gaming 51%Execration 49%
The model gave 51% on 496 Gaming — the game was taken by 496 Gaming in 30:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerRed
Storm SpiritKen
PhoenixBombi
Phantom AssassinYowe
Earth SpiritNARMAN
Vengeful SpiritRupido
little data
SnapfireRR
Model check result
Model favorite496 Gaming · 50%
Series result496 Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2