496 Gaming vs Team SMG — prediction DPC2S—ЗК 1 · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

496 Gamingwin 2:0

series probability

50%50%

probability at match start · final 2:0

Team SMGloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

496 Gaming

No games played over 6 months.

Team SMG

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Anti-Mage

1 picks · 1 bans

40%

Arc Warden

1 picks · 2 bans

60%

Dark Seer

1 picks · 0 bans

40%

Ember Spirit

1 picks · 1 bans

60%

Kunkka

1 picks · 1 bans

60%

Magnus

1 picks · 0 bans

40%

Morphling

1 picks · 1 bans

40%

Phantom Assassin

1 picks · 1 bans

60%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%

Hero pool strength50% 496 Gaming

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total50% 496 Gaming

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct41:9

496 Gaming 50%Team SMG 50%

The model gave 50% on 496 Gaming — the game was taken by 496 Gaming in 33:30.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo