Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Cignal Ultraloss 1:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Vice Esportswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Cignal Ultra
No games played over 6 months.
Vice Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Cignal Ultra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Cignal Ultra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:28
Cignal Ultra 50%Vice Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on Cignal Ultra — the game was taken by Vice Esports in 36:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-MageAbat
Arc WardenPalos
UrsaJamesy
Void SpiritBob
little data
TidehunterEnryu
Game 2prediction correct42:18
Cignal Ultra 50%Vice Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on Cignal Ultra — the game was taken by Cignal Ultra in 32:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinAbat
MagnusBob
KunkkaJamesy
MorphlingPalos
little data
Dark SeerEnryu
Game 3prediction missed34:48
Cignal Ultra 50%Vice Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on Cignal Ultra — the game was taken by Vice Esports in 46:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeAbat
WeaverPalos
Sand KingJamesy
Ember SpiritBob
little data
SlardarEnryu
Model check result
Model favoriteCignal Ultra · 50%
Series resultVice Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3