?
arrow_backBack to match
EPL Championship Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rune Eatersloss 0:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Rune Eaters

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
ani-san · 52 games
62%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
monodrama · 45 games
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ethereal · 39 games
54%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Ethereal · 33 games
42%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
ani-san · 28 games
50%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
monodrama · 27 games
81%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
Ankou · 25 games
52%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Ankou · 25 games
64%

Zero Tenacity

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Se · 41 game
61%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 39 games
54%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Se · 30 games
60%
Underlord
Underlord
Nefrit · 28 games
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
dEsire · 27 games
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 26 games
62%
Tusk
Tusk
dEsire · 26 games
54%
Warlock
Warlock
Se · 26 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
541 picks · 811 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
504 picks · 358 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
465 picks · 644 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
451 picks · 569 bans
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
383 picks · 725 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
354 picks · 571 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
340 picks · 468 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
327 picks · 527 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 62%
Hero pool strength50% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:33
Rune Eaters 50%Zero Tenacity 50%
The model gave 50% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 44:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendyowaai
49% · 133 games40% · 48 games
ViperWorick
Viper
Windranger
WindrangerEthereal
46% · 141 game43% · 327 games
Dragon KnightKami
Dragon Knight
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerAnkou
54% · 286 games55% · 91 game
EnigmaNefrit
Enigma
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magimonodrama
61% · 45 games47% · 302 games
WarlockMoOz
Warlock
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonani-san
58% · 209 games49% · 46 games
Nyx AssassindEsire
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct11:27
Rune Eaters 48%Zero Tenacity 52%
The model gave 52% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 37:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
Juggernautyowaai
44% · 114 games52% · 194 games
AbaddonKami
Abaddon
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritEthereal
54% · 333 games54% · 161 game
BristlebackNefrit
Bristleback
Brewmaster
BrewmasterAnkou
46% · 74 games45% · 112 games
Shadow FiendWorick
Shadow Fiend
Chen
Chenmonodrama
49% · 205 games50% · 337 games
JakiroMoOz
Jakiro
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mageani-san
48% · 130 games59% · 52 games
Nyx AssassindEsire
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 53%
Series resultZero Tenacity 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2