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ESL One Birmingham 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:1
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Pipsqueak+4loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Mars
Marsoften banned
No!ob · 24 games
46%
Muerta
Muerta
SumaiL · 23 games
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 18 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
SumaiL · 18 games
50%
Bane
Banesignature
OmaR · 17 games
76%
Puck
Puckoften banned
SumaiL · 17 games
53%
Pugna
Pugna
GH · 17 games
41%
Tusk
Tusk
GH · 16 games
56%

Pipsqueak+4

Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 43 games
44%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 35 games
60%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 35 games
63%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Nande · 31 game
45%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 30 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
xn丶e · 29 games
52%
Tusk
Tusk
Ekki · 29 games
55%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 28 games
68%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
537 picks · 805 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
501 picks · 357 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
464 picks · 642 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
452 picks · 566 bans
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
379 picks · 722 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
356 picks · 570 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
341 picks · 469 bans
49%
Slardar
Slardar
325 picks · 915 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:26
Nigma Galaxy 53%Pipsqueak+4 47%
The model gave 53% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 33:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSumaiL
52% · 302 games56% · 63 games
ClinkzNande
Clinkz
Mars
MarsNo!ob
51% · 252 games55% · 611 games
Ember SpiritCopy
Ember Spirit
Windranger
Windrangerrincyq
43% · 128 games49% · 181 game
UnderlordPalantimos
Underlord
Tiny
TinyOmaR
47% · 323 games50% · 330 games
HoodwinkEkki
Hoodwink
Tusk
TuskGH
43% · 365 games55% · 185 games
Undyingaik
Undying
Game 2prediction correct38:6
Nigma Galaxy 56%Pipsqueak+4 44%
The model gave 56% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 29:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
Abaddonrincyq
56% · 335 games46% · 234 games
UrsaNande
Ursa
Tidehunter
TidehunterNo!ob
47% · 206 games48% · 421 game
Dragon KnightCopy
Dragon Knight
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSumaiL
51% · 345 games46% · 204 games
AxePalantimos
Axe
Hoodwink
HoodwinkOmaR
49% · 448 games50% · 406 games
Snapfireaik
Snapfire
Dazzle
DazzleGH
49% · 175 games57% · 244 games
Shadow DemonEkki
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction correct47:22
Nigma Galaxy 58%Pipsqueak+4 42%
The model gave 58% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 43:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
LycanNo!ob
48% · 168 games50% · 338 games
Dragon KnightNande
Dragon Knight
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendrincyq
55% · 212 games48% · 306 games
Storm SpiritCopy
Storm Spirit
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSumaiL
55% · 494 games51% · 157 games
TidehunterPalantimos
Tidehunter
Hoodwink
HoodwinkOmaR
48% · 343 games45% · 242 games
BatriderEkki
Batrider
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinGH
50% · 101 game49% · 275 games
Warlockaik
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 64%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3