FISSURE Universe: Episode 8. Открытая квалификация · BO3
result vs prediction
strongboyswin 2:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
4Piratesloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
strongboys
No games played over 6 months.
4Pirates
Batrideroften banned
ariel · 33 games
Tusk
PERDAN4IK · 30 games
Dazzle
PERDAN4IK · 28 games
Disruptor
PERDAN4IK · 26 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 24 games
Marcioften banned
PERDAN4IK · 24 games
Pangolieroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 24 games
Slardaroften banned
мистер мораль · 23 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
537 picks · 803 bans
Tusk
501 picks · 359 bans
Dragon Knight
463 picks · 641 bans
Centaur Warrunner
452 picks · 565 bans
Shadow Demon
379 picks · 720 bans
Gyrocopter
357 picks · 569 bans
Mars
341 picks · 470 bans
Slardar
325 picks · 916 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 31%
Hero pool strength54% strongboys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% strongboys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:13
strongboys 52%4Pirates 48%
The model gave 52% on strongboys — the game was taken by strongboys in 32:12.
Game 2prediction correct24:35
strongboys 52%4Pirates 48%
The model gave 52% on strongboys — the game was taken by strongboys in 41:15.
Model check result
Model favoritestrongboys · 52%
Series resultstrongboys 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2