FISSURE Universe: Episode 8. Открытая квалификация · BO1
result vs predictionAalohasquadwin 1:0
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 1:0
PPandaChamploss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
alohasquad
Ember Spiritoften banned
спортик · 4 games
Bane
ALOHADANCE · 2 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Miyaoo · 2 games
Grimstroke
ALOHADANCE · 2 games
Marsoften banned
Miyaoo · 2 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Miyaoo · 2 games
Tusk
lupsione · 2 games
Windrangeroften banned
Shigetsu · 2 games
PandaChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
540 picks · 800 bans
Tusk
502 picks · 359 bans
Dragon Knight
463 picks · 640 bans
Centaur Warrunner
452 picks · 566 bans
Shadow Demon
380 picks · 719 bans
Gyrocopter
357 picks · 569 bans
Mars
343 picks · 469 bans
Slardar
325 picks · 915 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% alohasquad
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% alohasquad
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:14
alohasquad 69%PandaChamp 31%
The model gave 69% on alohasquad — the game was taken by alohasquad in 31:13.
Model check result
Model favoritealohasquad · 69%
Series resultalohasquad 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1