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ESL One Birmingham 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2
series probability
11%89%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MOUZwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Se · 41 game
61%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 39 games
54%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Se · 30 games
60%
Underlord
Underlord
Nefrit · 28 games
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
dEsire · 27 games
59%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Nefrit · 25 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Nefrit · 25 games
68%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 25 games
64%

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 65 games
69%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 48 games
54%
Pudge
Pudge
yamich · 46 games
57%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 39 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 38 games
66%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 34 games
71%
Mars
Marssignature
BOOM · 33 games
67%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Crystallis · 32 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
541 picks · 799 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
502 picks · 356 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
465 picks · 640 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
450 picks · 566 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
380 picks · 719 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
359 picks · 567 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
343 picks · 467 bans
49%
Slardar
Slardar
325 picks · 912 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 63%
Hero pool strength53% MOUZ
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total89% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:23
Zero Tenacity 26%MOUZ 74%
The model gave 74% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 25:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaKami
52% · 283 games50% · 469 games
Dragon KnightCrystallis
Dragon Knight
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
47% · 356 games52% · 219 games
TimbersawBOOM
Timbersaw
Leshrac
LeshracWorick
43% · 176 games52% · 361 game
TinyMidOne
Tiny
Dazzle
DazzleMoOz
49% · 96 games59% · 219 games
ChenSeleri
Chen
Tusk
TuskdEsire
46% · 472 games49% · 115 games
Skywrath Mageyamich
Skywrath Mage
Game 2prediction correct11:31
Zero Tenacity 26%MOUZ 74%
The model gave 74% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 30:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautKami
50% · 90 games43% · 38 games
RazorCrystallis
Razor
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritWorick
51% · 259 games53% · 191 game
LeshracMidOne
Leshrac
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
48% · 240 games52% · 253 games
TidehunterBOOM
Tidehunter
Warlock
WarlockMoOz
47% · 287 games54% · 336 games
SnapfireSeleri
Snapfire
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MagedEsire
53% · 90 games46% · 148 games
Clockwerkyamich
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 89%
Series resultMOUZ 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2