FISSURE Universe: Episode 8. Открытая квалификация · BO1
result vs prediction
VP.Prodigywin 1:0series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 1:0
RRakChamploss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
VP.Prodigy
Axeoften banned
takizawa · 14 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Serenada · 12 games
Marsoften banned
takizawa · 10 games
Abaddonoften banned
cutie · 9 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
takizawa · 9 games
Ringmaster
raregods · 9 games
Tidehunteroften banned
takizawa · 9 games
Windrangeroften banned
raregods · 9 games
RakChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
541 picks · 799 bans
Tusk
502 picks · 356 bans
Dragon Knight
465 picks · 640 bans
Centaur Warrunner
450 picks · 566 bans
Shadow Demon
380 picks · 719 bans
Gyrocopter
359 picks · 567 bans
Mars
343 picks · 467 bans
Slardar
325 picks · 912 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 33%
Hero pool strength53% RakChamp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% VP.Prodigy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:22
VP.Prodigy 73%RakChamp 27%
The model gave 73% on VP.Prodigy — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 39:09.
Model check result
Model favoriteVP.Prodigy · 73%
Series resultVP.Prodigy 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1