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ESL One Birmingham 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Amaru Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Looking for Orgloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Amaru Gaming

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Gardick · 6 games
17%
Puck
Puckoften banned
TaiLung · 6 games
17%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Oscar · 6 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Oscar · 5 games
40%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
TaiLung · 5 games
40%
Kez
Kez
Wits · 5 games
60%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Gardick · 4 games
50%
Clinkz
Clinkzoften banned
Wits · 4 games
50%

Looking for Org

Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Matthew · 5 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
payk · 4 games
50%
Pugna
Pugna
Panda · 4 games
75%
Viper
Viperoften banned
PiPi · 4 games
75%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
ILICH- · 3 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Panda · 3 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
PiPi · 3 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Panda · 3 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
537 picks · 797 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
500 picks · 353 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
465 picks · 639 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
450 picks · 565 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
379 picks · 716 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
356 picks · 566 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
343 picks · 465 bans
49%
Slardar
Slardar
323 picks · 908 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 64%
Hero pool strength53% Looking for Org
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total67% Looking for Org
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:11
Amaru Gaming 40%Looking for Org 60%
The model gave 60% on Looking for Org — the game was taken by Amaru Gaming in 44:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezWits
52% · 73 games50% · 155 games
Storm SpiritPiPi
Storm Spirit
Brewmaster
BrewmasterOscar
51% · 99 games52% · 83 games
Windrangerpayk
Windranger
Warlock
WarlockGardick
52% · 511 games56% · 59 games
UnderlordVitaly
Underlord
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageMichael
42% · 152 games51% · 299 games
JakiroLelis
Jakiro
49% · 239 games
TuskMatthew
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct30:33
Amaru Gaming 42%Looking for Org 58%
The model gave 58% on Looking for Org — the game was taken by Looking for Org in 55:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerWits
48% · 241 game53% · 120 games
Gyrocopterpayk
Gyrocopter
Brewmaster
BrewmasterOscar
52% · 84 games65% · 56 games
EnigmaVitaly
Enigma
Muerta
MuertaMichael
43% · 289 games54% · 195 games
TinyPiPi
Tiny
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiGardick
45% · 53 games45% · 213 games
TuskLelis
Tusk
53% · 83 games
SnapfireMatthew
Snapfire
Game 3prediction missed46:33
Amaru Gaming 41%Looking for Org 59%
The model gave 59% on Looking for Org — the game was taken by Amaru Gaming in 57:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezWits
61% · 27 games43% · 38 games
Clinkzpayk
Clinkz
Axe
AxeOscar
53% · 192 games51% · 255 games
TinyPiPi
Tiny
Jakiro
JakiroGardick
49% · 496 games51% · 181 game
TidehunterVitaly
Tidehunter
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMichael
44% · 155 games52% · 92 games
UndyingLelis
Undying
50% · 304 games
RingmasterMatthew
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteLooking for Org · 67%
Series resultAmaru Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3