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ESL One Birmingham 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Peru Rejectswin 2:1
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Heroicloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Peru Rejects

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Elmisho · 13 games
54%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 12 games
42%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Michael · 12 games
58%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Michael · 11 games
45%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
DarkMago · 11 games
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Elmisho · 10 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
DarkMago · 10 games
70%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Matthew · 10 games
70%

Heroic

Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 25 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 21 game
67%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
KJ · 18 games
44%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Yuma · 17 games
53%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Wisper · 16 games
63%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Yuma · 16 games
81%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Yuma · 15 games
47%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Wisper · 15 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
537 picks · 797 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
500 picks · 353 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
465 picks · 639 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
450 picks · 565 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
379 picks · 716 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
356 picks · 566 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
343 picks · 465 bans
49%
Slardar
Slardar
323 picks · 908 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 48%
Hero pool strength50% Heroic
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total69% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:30
Peru Rejects 41%Heroic 59%
The model gave 59% on Heroic — the game was taken by Peru Rejects in 45:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterParker
48% · 273 games53% · 268 games
BristlebackTaiLung
Bristleback
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritDarkMago
54% · 341 game46% · 49 games
RazorYuma
Razor
Slardar
SlardarFrank
51% · 163 games48% · 80 games
EnigmaWisper
Enigma
Clockwerk
ClockwerkScofield
48% · 184 games43% · 492 games
TinyThiolicor
Tiny
Huskar
HuskarElmisho
60% · 56 games49% · 128 games
Ancient ApparitionKJ
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction correct19:32
Peru Rejects 41%Heroic 59%
The model gave 59% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 33:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendParker
52% · 82 games52% · 17 games
MeepoYuma
Meepo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritDarkMago
52% · 213 games47% · 91 game
PudgeWisper
Pudge
Night Stalker
Night StalkerFrank
49% · 87 games50% · 54 games
ViperTaiLung
Viper
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonElmisho
57% · 189 games47% · 467 games
JakiroThiolicor
Jakiro
Tiny
TinyScofield
47% · 271 game49% · 213 games
ClockwerkKJ
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction missed39:18
Peru Rejects 38%Heroic 62%
The model gave 62% on Heroic — the game was taken by Peru Rejects in 37:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterParker
46% · 295 games50% · 80 games
JuggernautYuma
Juggernaut
Tidehunter
TidehunterFrank
45% · 250 games42% · 60 games
PudgeWisper
Pudge
Viper
ViperDarkMago
58% · 64 games44% · 348 games
TinyTaiLung
Tiny
Batrider
BatriderElmisho
57% · 233 games50% · 339 games
JakiroKJ
Jakiro
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinScofield
48% · 58 games61% · 73 games
Keeper of the LightThiolicor
Keeper of the Light
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 69%
Series resultPeru Rejects 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3