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ESL One Birmingham 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 2:0
series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 2:0
New Growthloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 25 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 21 game
67%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
KJ · 18 games
44%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Yuma · 17 games
53%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Wisper · 16 games
63%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Yuma · 16 games
81%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Yuma · 15 games
47%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Wisper · 15 games
47%

New Growth

Disruptor
Disruptor
Panda · 1 game
100%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Panda · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
536 picks · 791 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
499 picks · 349 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
462 picks · 638 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
450 picks · 561 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
377 picks · 711 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
355 picks · 565 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
342 picks · 464 bans
49%
Slardar
Slardar
323 picks · 903 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 60%
Hero pool strength57% New Growth
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total92% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:7
Heroic 76%New Growth 24%
The model gave 76% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 26:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterYuma
59% · 35 games51% · 95 games
UndyingPanda
Undying
Huskar
HuskarTaiLung
20% · 6 games
Underlord
UnderlordWisper
36% · 10 games
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightThiolicor
55% · 7 games
Snapfire
SnapfireKJ
56% · 37 games
Game 2prediction correct24:5
Heroic 78%New Growth 22%
The model gave 78% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 25:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperTaiLung
60% · 6 games47% · 84 games
DazzlePanda
Dazzle
Bristleback
BristlebackWisper
60% · 16 games
Windranger
WindrangerYuma
47% · 26 games
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonThiolicor
59% · 30 games
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorKJ
30% · 6 games
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 92%
Series resultHeroic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2