?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL One Birmingham 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincereloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 35 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 35 games
69%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 26 games
58%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 24 games
75%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Sneyking · 23 games
70%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Cr1t- · 23 games
78%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 22 games
77%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Skiter · 22 games
73%

Natus Vincere

Disruptor
Disruptor
Riddys · 24 games
54%
Warlock
Warlock
Riddys · 24 games
58%
Bane
Banesignature
Zayac · 22 games
77%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Zayac · 22 games
64%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Riddys · 19 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Niku · 17 games
59%
Dazzle
Dazzle
Riddys · 16 games
50%
Mars
Marssignature
pma · 16 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
534 picks · 789 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
497 picks · 349 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
462 picks · 636 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
449 picks · 561 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
377 picks · 706 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
355 picks · 565 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
339 picks · 463 bans
49%
Slardar
Slardar
322 picks · 900 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)74% vs 53%
Hero pool strength56% Team Falcons
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total76% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:39
Team Falcons 64%Natus Vincere 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 57:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzSkiter
60% · 41 game52% · 228 games
Ursagotthejuice
Ursa
Slardar
SlardarMalr1ne
42% · 203 games54% · 375 games
Ember SpiritNiku
Ember Spirit
Chen
ChenSneyking
55% · 180 games47% · 120 games
Underlordpma
Underlord
Mars
MarsATF
47% · 310 games50% · 26 games
GrimstrokeRiddys
Grimstroke
Tiny
TinyCr1t-
54% · 437 games44% · 422 games
TuskZayac
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct47:9
Team Falcons 67%Natus Vincere 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 31:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezSkiter
56% · 73 games49% · 213 games
Terrorbladegotthejuice
Terrorblade
Viper
ViperATF
48% · 87 games50% · 218 games
PuckNiku
Puck
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMalr1ne
49% · 199 games50% · 179 games
Marspma
Mars
Ringmaster
RingmasterCr1t-
48% · 529 games43% · 197 games
TinyZayac
Tiny
Bane
BaneSneyking
60% · 253 games47% · 334 games
JakiroRiddys
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 76%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2