?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL One Birmingham 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Estar Backsloss 1:2
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Looking for Orgwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Estar Backs

Disruptor
Disruptor
Accel · 9 games
44%
Alchemist
Alchemist
bsK7- · 5 games
40%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Michael · 4 games
25%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Accel · 4 games
25%
Omniknight
Omniknight
bsK7- · 4 games
25%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
bsK7- · 4 games
75%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Michael · 4 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Accel · 4 games
75%

Looking for Org

Pugna
Pugna
Panda · 4 games
75%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Matthew · 4 games
50%
Viper
Viperoften banned
PiPi · 4 games
75%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Panda · 3 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
PiPi · 3 games
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
payk · 3 games
33%
Muerta
Muerta
payk · 3 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ILICH- · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
533 picks · 786 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
501 picks · 344 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
461 picks · 634 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
448 picks · 559 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
375 picks · 701 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
353 picks · 564 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
339 picks · 465 bans
49%
Slardar
Slardar
322 picks · 897 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 60%
Hero pool strength56% Looking for Org
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Looking for Org
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:21
Estar Backs 39%Looking for Org 61%
The model gave 61% on Looking for Org — the game was taken by Looking for Org in 36:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterbsK7-
46% · 405 games59% · 133 games
Dragon Knightpayk
Dragon Knight
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorAccel
52% · 27 games56% · 92 games
Storm SpiritPiPi
Storm Spirit
48% · 98 games
Centaur WarrunnerVitaly
Centaur Warrunner
58% · 68 games
ChenLelis
Chen
43% · 41 game
Dark WillowMatthew
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction missed22:10
Estar Backs 41%Looking for Org 59%
The model gave 59% on Looking for Org — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 31:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Huskar
HuskarbsK7-
55% · 127 games38% · 32 games
Tinypayk
Tiny
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorAccel
60% · 38 games50% · 21 game
SniperPiPi
Sniper
38% · 18 games
AxeVitaly
Axe
45% · 30 games
BatriderMatthew
Batrider
46% · 64 games
JakiroLelis
Jakiro
Game 3prediction correct16:33
Estar Backs 36%Looking for Org 64%
The model gave 64% on Looking for Org — the game was taken by Looking for Org in 42:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorbsK7-
41% · 35 games52% · 74 games
Gyrocopterpayk
Gyrocopter
Clockwerk
ClockwerkAccel
49% · 107 games40% · 27 games
InvokerPiPi
Invoker
59% · 24 games
AxeVitaly
Axe
63% · 4 games
Treant ProtectorLelis
Treant Protector
68% · 13 games
Skywrath MageMatthew
Skywrath Mage
Model check result
Model favoriteLooking for Org · 74%
Series resultLooking for Org 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3