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ESL One Birmingham 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Pipsqueak+4loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Antares · 27 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 20 games
55%
Puck
Pucksignature
Abed · 18 games
72%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Fly · 17 games
53%
Warlock
Warlock
Fly · 17 games
59%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Timado · 15 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Abed · 15 games
47%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Timado · 15 games
53%

Pipsqueak+4

Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 42 games
45%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 35 games
63%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 34 games
62%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Nande · 30 games
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 30 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
xn丶e · 29 games
52%
Tusk
Tusk
Ekki · 29 games
55%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 28 games
68%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
532 picks · 783 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
500 picks · 344 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
461 picks · 637 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
448 picks · 558 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
374 picks · 698 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
355 picks · 566 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
340 picks · 463 bans
48%
Slardar
Slardar
321 picks · 894 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 58%
Hero pool strength52% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total66% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:18
Virtus.pro 59%Pipsqueak+4 41%
The model gave 59% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 31:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzTimado
48% · 24 games51% · 136 games
Shadow FiendNande
Shadow Fiend
Brewmaster
BrewmasterSabeRLight-
61% · 24 games48% · 104 games
Void SpiritCopy
Void Spirit
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainAbed
40% · 206 games55% · 104 games
UndyingPalantimos
Undying
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiFly
52% · 45 games53% · 99 games
HoodwinkEkki
Hoodwink
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanHellscream
49% · 161 game51% · 17 games
Omniknightaik
Omniknight
Game 2prediction correct39:23
Virtus.pro 58%Pipsqueak+4 42%
The model gave 58% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 38:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Underlord
UnderlordSabeRLight-
47% · 142 games55% · 197 games
PuckCopy
Puck
Clinkz
ClinkzTimado
55% · 40 games52% · 193 games
MarsNande
Mars
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritAbed
47% · 356 games49% · 240 games
Centaur WarrunnerPalantimos
Centaur Warrunner
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiFly
51% · 60 games47% · 317 games
Warlockaik
Warlock
Tiny
TinyHellscream
53% · 418 games43% · 69 games
WeaverEkki
Weaver
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 66%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2