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ESL One Birmingham 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circleloss 0:2
series probability
15%85%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Inner Circle

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 18 games
39%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Norma · 18 games
39%
Tusk
Tusk
Fernans · 17 games
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 16 games
25%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Fernans · 13 games
62%
Warlock
Warlock
flacko · 13 games
31%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Fernans · 12 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Norma · 11 games
18%

Aurora Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Mira · 27 games
56%
Mars
Marsoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 24 games
58%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Oli · 22 games
41%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mikoto · 21 game
48%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Nightfall · 20 games
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 19 games
63%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Nightfall · 18 games
56%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Panto · 16 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
532 picks · 782 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
498 picks · 345 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
462 picks · 637 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
447 picks · 558 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
374 picks · 698 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
355 picks · 567 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
340 picks · 462 bans
48%
Slardar
Slardar
320 picks · 895 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 54%
Hero pool strength60% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total85% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:34
Inner Circle 29%Aurora Gaming 71%
The model gave 71% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 31:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga Siren423
66% · 156 games45% · 434 games
PuckMikoto
Puck
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritniche
54% · 417 games50% · 184 games
WindrangerNightfall
Windranger
Abaddon
Abaddonlaise
50% · 267 games51% · 108 games
EnigmaWs
Enigma
Tusk
TuskDaze
48% · 437 games52% · 449 games
TinyMira
Tiny
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageSe
40% · 83 games44% · 185 games
PhoenixKaori
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct17:38
Inner Circle 30%Aurora Gaming 70%
The model gave 70% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 33:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight423
47% · 555 games51% · 456 games
PuckMikoto
Puck
Slardar
Slardarniche
47% · 289 games56% · 301 game
UrsaNightfall
Ursa
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerlaise
55% · 408 games58% · 38 games
BrewmasterWs
Brewmaster
Disruptor
DisruptorSe
45% · 384 games49% · 595 games
TuskMira
Tusk
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonDaze
45% · 353 games49% · 599 games
JakiroKaori
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 85%
Series resultAurora Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2