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FISSURE Universe: Episode 8. Открытая квалификация · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Valinorwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 19 games
68%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
bashka · 19 games
47%
Mars
Marssignature
Covisnine · 16 games
63%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Covisnine · 14 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
xsvampire · 14 games
71%
Puck
Pucksignature
young G · 13 games
62%
Snapfire
Snapfire
xsvampire · 13 games
46%
Underlord
Underlord
Covisnine · 12 games
58%

Valinor

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
533 picks · 779 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
498 picks · 345 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
461 picks · 638 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
446 picks · 557 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
377 picks · 692 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
356 picks · 568 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
344 picks · 460 bans
49%
Slardar
Slardar
320 picks · 892 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:18
Nemiga Gaming 65%Valinor 35%
The model gave 65% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 41:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
Juggernautselfhate
57% · 74 games50% · 54 games
KezCoblackk
Kez
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirityoung G
52% · 234 games51% · 37 games
SniperG.T.I
Sniper
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCovisnine
56% · 260 games46% · 221 game
MarsWuiter
Mars
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorVaniLLl
63% · 22 games42% · 158 games
Shadow DemonStoic
Shadow Demon
36% · 120 games
Dark WillowJeezy
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction missed5:28
Nemiga Gaming 62%Valinor 38%
The model gave 62% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Valinor in 23:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tidehunter
TidehunterCovisnine
53% · 297 games45% · 170 games
MuertaCoblackk
Muerta
Tiny
Tinyyoung G
51% · 530 games48% · 115 games
KunkkaWuiter
Kunkka
Broodmother
Broodmotherselfhate
64% · 56 games41% · 166 games
PuckG.T.I
Puck
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenVaniLLl
53% · 120 games49% · 311 games
JakiroJeezy
Jakiro
45% · 241 game
TuskStoic
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed16:26
Nemiga Gaming 61%Valinor 39%
The model gave 61% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Valinor in 29:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
Weaverselfhate
42% · 93 games54% · 102 games
MorphlingCoblackk
Morphling
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirityoung G
56% · 395 games47% · 315 games
TinyG.T.I
Tiny
Slardar
SlardarCovisnine
54% · 220 games42% · 106 games
PhoenixWuiter
Phoenix
Dazzle
DazzleVaniLLl
57% · 93 games46% · 41 game
Spirit BreakerJeezy
Spirit Breaker
47% · 237 games
WarlockStoic
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 71%
Series resultValinor 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3