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ESL One Birmingham 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:1
series probability
95%5%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Zero Tenacityloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 35 games
69%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 34 games
74%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 26 games
58%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 24 games
75%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Sneyking · 23 games
70%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 22 games
77%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 22 games
68%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Skiter · 22 games
73%

Zero Tenacity

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Se · 41 game
61%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 39 games
54%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Se · 30 games
60%
Underlord
Underlord
Nefrit · 28 games
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
dEsire · 27 games
59%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Nefrit · 25 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Nefrit · 25 games
68%
Tusk
Tusk
dEsire · 25 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
530 picks · 776 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
496 picks · 345 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
461 picks · 637 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
443 picks · 556 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
376 picks · 689 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
355 picks · 568 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
343 picks · 457 bans
48%
Slardar
Slardar
320 picks · 890 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 63%
Hero pool strength59% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total95% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:24
Team Falcons 82%Zero Tenacity 18%
The model gave 82% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 38:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tidehunter
TidehunterATF
52% · 239 games41% · 66 games
SniperWorick
Sniper
Kez
KezSkiter
49% · 62 games50% · 242 games
WindrangerKami
Windranger
Huskar
HuskarMalr1ne
48% · 118 games54% · 294 games
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
Centaur Warrunner
Tiny
TinyCr1t-
50% · 331 game44% · 50 games
Spirit BreakerdEsire
Spirit Breaker
Ringmaster
RingmasterSneyking
58% · 406 games50% · 504 games
JakiroMoOz
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed31:33
Team Falcons 81%Zero Tenacity 19%
The model gave 81% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 1:12:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerSkiter
48% · 206 games47% · 389 games
GyrocopterKami
Gyrocopter
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMalr1ne
46% · 372 games54% · 67 games
ViperWorick
Viper
Tidehunter
TidehunterATF
46% · 229 games53% · 317 games
BristlebackNefrit
Bristleback
Chen
ChenSneyking
50% · 207 games58% · 84 games
Nyx AssassindEsire
Nyx Assassin
Tiny
TinyCr1t-
47% · 404 games51% · 561 game
JakiroMoOz
Jakiro
Game 3prediction correct25:22
Team Falcons 81%Zero Tenacity 19%
The model gave 81% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 49:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzSkiter
54% · 47 games49% · 194 games
UrsaKami
Ursa
Tidehunter
TidehunterATF
51% · 311 games48% · 290 games
Ember SpiritWorick
Ember Spirit
Monkey King
Monkey KingMalr1ne
55% · 236 games49% · 268 games
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
Centaur Warrunner
Ringmaster
RingmasterCr1t-
54% · 428 games50% · 437 games
JakiroMoOz
Jakiro
Marci
MarciSneyking
46% · 213 games43% · 46 games
Spirit BreakerdEsire
Spirit Breaker
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 95%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3