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ESL One Birmingham 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:1
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MOUZloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Disruptor
Disruptor
Riddys · 24 games
54%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Riddys · 23 games
61%
Bane
Banesignature
Zayac · 22 games
77%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Zayac · 22 games
64%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Riddys · 19 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Niku · 17 games
59%
Dazzle
Dazzle
Riddys · 16 games
50%
Mars
Marssignature
pma · 15 games
60%

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 63 games
70%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 48 games
54%
Pudge
Pudge
yamich · 45 games
58%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 39 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 38 games
66%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 34 games
71%
Mars
Marssignature
BOOM · 33 games
67%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Crystallis · 32 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
530 picks · 776 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
496 picks · 345 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
461 picks · 637 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
443 picks · 556 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
376 picks · 689 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
355 picks · 568 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
343 picks · 457 bans
48%
Slardar
Slardar
320 picks · 890 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 65%
Hero pool strength52% MOUZ
Head-to-head3 – 5
Model total64% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:26
Natus Vincere 41%MOUZ 59%
The model gave 59% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 27:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
Juggernautgotthejuice
54% · 55 games53% · 152 games
Shadow FiendCrystallis
Shadow Fiend
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerpma
56% · 220 games48% · 47 games
BrewmasterBOOM
Brewmaster
Tiny
TinyNiku
45% · 238 games53% · 62 games
ViperMidOne
Viper
Warlock
WarlockRiddys
50% · 280 games44% · 224 games
PugnaSeleri
Pugna
Clockwerk
ClockwerkZayac
50% · 158 games51% · 466 games
Tuskyamich
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed27:10
Natus Vincere 43%MOUZ 57%
The model gave 57% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 36:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
Broodmothergotthejuice
61% · 35 games56% · 148 games
Monkey KingCrystallis
Monkey King
Puck
PuckNiku
51% · 296 games38% · 42 games
BrewmasterBOOM
Brewmaster
Mars
Marspma
53% · 226 games44% · 40 games
ViperMidOne
Viper
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeRiddys
48% · 30 games50% · 88 games
Skywrath MageSeleri
Skywrath Mage
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorZayac
58% · 25 games43% · 294 games
Tuskyamich
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed28:5
Natus Vincere 44%MOUZ 56%
The model gave 56% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 33:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
Broodmothergotthejuice
63% · 32 games46% · 190 games
AbaddonCrystallis
Abaddon
Tidehunter
Tidehunterpma
54% · 145 games47% · 206 games
BeastmasterMidOne
Beastmaster
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNiku
51% · 227 games47% · 41 game
BrewmasterBOOM
Brewmaster
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonZayac
47% · 179 games45% · 113 games
EnchantressSeleri
Enchantress
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeRiddys
57% · 31 game51% · 64 games
Pudgeyamich
Pudge
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 64%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3