DOGSENT vs alohasquad — prediction ECS 1 · Dota 2

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EPL Championship Season 1 · BO3

result vs prediction

DOGSENTloss 0:2

series probability

38%62%

probability at match start · final 0:2

Aalohasquadwin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

DOGSENT

No games played over 6 months.

alohasquad

Bane

ALOHADANCE · 1 game

Centaur Warrunneroften banned

Miyaoo · 1 game

Dragon Knightoften banned

спортик · 1 game

Ember Spiritoften banned

спортик · 1 game

Marsoften banned

Miyaoo · 1 game

Ringmaster

lupsione · 1 game

Skywrath Mage

ALOHADANCE · 1 game

Tusk

lupsione · 1 game

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Jakiro

531 picks · 767 bans

49%

Tusk

492 picks · 342 bans

48%

Dragon Knight

461 picks · 637 bans

51%

Centaur Warrunner

441 picks · 552 bans

56%

Shadow Demon

377 picks · 677 bans

54%

Gyrocopter

353 picks · 569 bans

50%

Mars

341 picks · 459 bans

48%

Slardar

324 picks · 890 bans

52%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)30% vs 43%

Hero pool strength55% DOGSENT

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total62% alohasquad

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct27:46

DOGSENT 41%alohasquad 59%

The model gave 59% on alohasquad — the game was taken by alohasquad in 41:57.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo