FISSURE Universe: Episode 8. Открытая квалификация · BO1
result vs prediction
NoLogoJustMMRloss 0:1series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:1
GBGolden Baryswin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
NoLogoJustMMR
No games played over 6 months.
Golden Barys
Skywrath Mage
ArrOw · 2 games
Lion
ArrOw · 1 game
Tusk
ArrOw · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
531 picks · 765 bans
Tusk
492 picks · 342 bans
Dragon Knight
463 picks · 636 bans
Centaur Warrunner
439 picks · 551 bans
Shadow Demon
375 picks · 674 bans
Gyrocopter
353 picks · 570 bans
Mars
342 picks · 457 bans
Slardar
323 picks · 887 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Golden Barys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Golden Barys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:35
NoLogoJustMMR 45%Golden Barys 55%
The model gave 55% on Golden Barys — the game was taken by Golden Barys in 28:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusalegacy
LionArrOw
Ember SpiritNyx
Windrangerpiro
Shadow DemonFlash
Model check result
Model favoriteGolden Barys · 55%
Series resultGolden Barys 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1