FISSURE Universe: Episode 8. Открытая квалификация · BO1
result vs prediction1R1000 reasonswin 1:0
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Estar Backsloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1000 reasons
Beastmasteroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 1 game
Dark Seeroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 1 game
Disruptor
Krinzhik · 1 game
Muerta
islA · 1 game
Void Spirit
islA · 1 game
Warlock
Krinzhik · 1 game
Estar Backs
Disruptor
Accel · 9 games
Alchemist
bsK7- · 5 games
Hoodwink
Michael · 4 games
Jakirooften banned
Accel · 4 games
Omniknight
bsK7- · 4 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
bsK7- · 4 games
Snapfire
Michael · 4 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Accel · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
532 picks · 765 bans
Tusk
493 picks · 342 bans
Dragon Knight
463 picks · 636 bans
Centaur Warrunner
439 picks · 551 bans
Shadow Demon
376 picks · 675 bans
Gyrocopter
354 picks · 570 bans
Mars
342 picks · 458 bans
Slardar
323 picks · 889 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength55% Estar Backs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Estar Backs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
1000 reasons 48%Estar Backs 52%
The model gave 52% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by 1000 reasons.
Model check result
Model favoriteEstar Backs · 52%
Series result1000 reasons 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1