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ESL One Birmingham 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Inner Circlewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Mira · 27 games
56%
Mars
Marsoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 23 games
57%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Oli · 21 game
38%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Nightfall · 20 games
55%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mikoto · 19 games
47%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Nightfall · 17 games
53%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 17 games
71%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Panto · 16 games
75%

Inner Circle

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 18 games
39%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Norma · 18 games
39%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 16 games
25%
Tusk
Tusk
Fernans · 16 games
44%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Fernans · 13 games
62%
Warlock
Warlock
flacko · 12 games
33%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Fernans · 11 games
36%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Fernans · 11 games
18%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
533 picks · 767 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
492 picks · 344 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
462 picks · 639 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
442 picks · 546 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
375 picks · 659 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
356 picks · 562 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
340 picks · 462 bans
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
329 picks · 145 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 43%
Hero pool strength60% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed3:33
Aurora Gaming 74%Inner Circle 26%
The model gave 74% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 33:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinNightfall
51% · 182 games51% · 248 games
Beastmasterniche
Beastmaster
Puck
PuckMikoto
51% · 275 games39% · 47 games
Clinkz423
Clinkz
Axe
AxeWs
50% · 180 games47% · 115 games
Undyinglaise
Undying
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorKaori
55% · 29 games45% · 330 games
TinyDaze
Tiny
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMira
57% · 197 games52% · 123 games
DazzleSe
Dazzle
Game 2prediction missed16:32
Aurora Gaming 74%Inner Circle 26%
The model gave 74% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 39:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzNightfall
55% · 38 games48% · 109 games
Bristleback423
Bristleback
Lina
LinaMikoto
47% · 86 games52% · 32 games
Huskarniche
Huskar
Enigma
EnigmaWs
55% · 114 games45% · 160 games
Dragon Knightlaise
Dragon Knight
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMira
57% · 286 games42% · 199 games
TuskDaze
Tusk
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorKaori
56% · 23 games50% · 47 games
DazzleSe
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 88%
Series resultInner Circle 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2