EPL Masters I. Play-In · BO3
result vs predictionKKWwin 2:1
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Spirit Academyloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
KW
No games played over 6 months.
Team Spirit Academy
Grimstroke
Aidar · 22 games
Lion
Aidar · 17 games
Kunkka
86 · 14 games
Largooften banned
kae · 12 games
Brewmasteroften banned
kae · 11 games
Jakiro
kyford · 11 games
Dark Willow
Aidar · 10 games
Batrideroften banned
86 · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
494 picks · 357 bans
Rubick
395 picks · 239 bans
Tiny
340 picks · 351 bans
Clockwerk
336 picks · 632 bans
Windranger
320 picks · 232 bans
Pangolier
299 picks · 404 bans
Bane
290 picks · 276 bans
Storm Spirit
286 picks · 306 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 47%
Hero pool strength54% KW
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Team Spirit Academy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
KW 48%Team Spirit Academy 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Spirit Academy — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy.
Game 2prediction missed
KW 48%Team Spirit Academy 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Spirit Academy — the game was taken by KW.
Game 3prediction missed
KW 48%Team Spirit Academy 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Spirit Academy — the game was taken by KW.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit Academy · 52%
Series resultKW 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3