ESL One Birmingham 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yangon Galacticosloss 0:2series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PlayTimewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yangon Galacticos
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Young PH · 5 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Ksh · 5 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Young PH · 4 games
Puckoften banned
Young PH · 4 games
Slarkoften banned
Ksh · 4 games
Ursaoften banned
Ksh · 4 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Ksh · 3 games
Invokeroften banned
Young PH · 3 games
PlayTime
Dawnbreakeroften banned
JG · 2 games
Phantom Assassin
Gabbi · 2 games
Tusk
DJ · 2 games
Abaddonoften banned
Gabbi · 1 game
Kunkka
JG · 1 game
Leshrac
Armel · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
Gabbi · 1 game
Muerta
DJ · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
537 picks · 751 bans
Tusk
485 picks · 343 bans
Dragon Knight
462 picks · 635 bans
Centaur Warrunner
440 picks · 545 bans
Shadow Demon
371 picks · 651 bans
Gyrocopter
358 picks · 552 bans
Mars
337 picks · 464 bans
Hoodwink
336 picks · 149 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 67%
Hero pool strength58% PlayTime
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% PlayTime
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:26
Yangon Galacticos 36%PlayTime 64%
The model gave 64% on PlayTime — the game was taken by PlayTime in 38:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerKsh
Phantom AssassinGabbi
48% · 57 games
Storm SpiritArmel
59% · 23 games
TimbersawJG
36% · 18 games
Crystal MaidenKuku
46% · 72 games
TuskDJ
Game 2prediction correct12:33
Yangon Galacticos 35%PlayTime 65%
The model gave 65% on PlayTime — the game was taken by PlayTime in 30:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterKsh
Nature's ProphetGabbi
42% · 88 games
TimbersawJG
31% · 9 games
ViperArmel
63% · 56 games
BaneKuku
52% · 110 games
TuskDJ
Model check result
Model favoritePlayTime · 75%
Series resultPlayTime 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2