ESL One Birmingham 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
JAJackky and friendsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Snapfire
Shanks · 28 games
Tusk
Shanks · 22 games
Marssignature
Tino- · 20 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Palos · 18 games
Axe
Tino- · 16 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Bob · 15 games
Puckoften banned
Bob · 15 games
Pangolieroften banned
Bob · 14 games
Jackky and friends
Marsoften banned
Jabz · 3 games
Phoenix
Oli · 3 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
JaCkky · 2 games
Tusk
Q · 2 games
Axe
Jabz · 1 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Jabz · 1 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
JaCkky · 1 game
Drow Ranger
JaCkky · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
537 picks · 751 bans
Tusk
483 picks · 343 bans
Dragon Knight
460 picks · 635 bans
Centaur Warrunner
440 picks · 543 bans
Shadow Demon
371 picks · 649 bans
Gyrocopter
357 picks · 551 bans
Mars
337 picks · 462 bans
Hoodwink
336 picks · 149 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 63%
Hero pool strength51% Jackky and friends
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:32
Execration 59%Jackky and friends 41%
The model gave 59% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 55:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinPalos
Ember SpiritEmo
Storm SpiritBob
Dragon KnightJaCkky
DoomTino-
KunkkaJabz
MuertaShanks
TuskQ
Disruptorcml
Crystal MaidenOli
Game 2prediction correct22:12
Execration 59%Jackky and friends 41%
The model gave 59% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 28:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BristlebackPalos
GyrocopterJaCkky
LinaBob
HuskarEmo
Dragon KnightTino-
AxeJabz
TinyShanks
RingmasterQ
Banecml
TuskOli
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 66%
Series resultExecration 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2