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EPL Masters I. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Ilbirs eSportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
ariel · 21 game
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
VaniLLl · 20 games
35%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Covisnine · 20 games
40%
Phoenix
Phoenix
VaniLLl · 20 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
young G · 17 games
59%
Tusk
Tusk
ariel · 16 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
VaniLLl · 15 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
young G · 15 games
47%

Ilbirs eSports

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
xsvampire · 10 games
40%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
egx · 9 games
56%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
chempik · 9 games
56%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
niche · 8 games
38%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Nefrit · 7 games
29%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Norma · 7 games
29%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
niche · 7 games
29%
Windranger
Windranger
Ponlo · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
499 picks · 357 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
400 picks · 240 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
343 picks · 353 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
336 picks · 631 bans
56%
Windranger
Windranger
321 picks · 234 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
306 picks · 405 bans
53%
Bane
Bane
289 picks · 273 bans
61%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
287 picks · 307 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 48%
Hero pool strength54% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total68% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:25
Nemiga Gaming 61%Ilbirs eSports 39%
The model gave 61% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Ilbirs eSports in 32:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Puckyoung G
52% · 367 games47% · 237 games
TerrorbladeKami
Terrorblade
Kez
Kezbyun
52% · 165 games53% · 387 games
Ember Spiritniche
Ember Spirit
Slardar
SlardarCovisnine
51% · 318 games49% · 90 games
Night StalkerNorma
Night Stalker
Rubick
Rubickariel
47% · 202 games48% · 163 games
TechiesZayac
Techies
Lich
LichJANTER
52% · 83 games51% · 258 games
WarlockKidaro
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct38:19
Nemiga Gaming 61%Ilbirs eSports 39%
The model gave 61% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 33:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Necrophos
Necrophosyoung G
59% · 44 games52% · 313 games
Ember Spiritniche
Ember Spirit
Morphling
Morphlingbyun
51% · 84 games52% · 21 game
SpectreKami
Spectre
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCovisnine
49% · 223 games47% · 237 games
BatriderNorma
Batrider
Ringmaster
Ringmasterariel
53% · 191 game52% · 38 games
Witch DoctorPonlo
Witch Doctor
Bane
BaneJANTER
53% · 148 games37% · 81 game
Earth SpiritZayac
Earth Spirit
Game 3prediction missed14:37
Nemiga Gaming 59%Ilbirs eSports 41%
The model gave 59% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Ilbirs eSports in 36:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangerbyun
50% · 101 game59% · 120 games
AlchemistKami
Alchemist
Invoker
Invokeryoung G
49% · 170 games48% · 340 games
Pangolierniche
Pangolier
Underlord
UnderlordCovisnine
44% · 270 games53% · 305 games
SlardarNorma
Slardar
Rubick
Rubickariel
45% · 456 games48% · 142 games
TechiesZayac
Techies
Tusk
TuskJANTER
50% · 485 games54% · 575 games
HoodwinkPonlo
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 68%
Series resultIlbirs eSports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3