ESL One Birmingham 2026. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:1series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:1
PUPasika UAloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Disruptorsignature
Se · 41 game
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 39 games
Enchantresssignature
Se · 30 games
Hoodwink
dEsire · 27 games
Underlord
Nefrit · 27 games
Beastmastersignature
Nefrit · 25 games
Tusk
dEsire · 25 games
Warlock
Se · 25 games
Pasika UA
Batrideroften banned
kreker · 1 game
Bounty Hunteroften banned
QBFY · 1 game
Broodmotheroften banned
mangekyou · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
Crystallize · 1 game
Jakirooften banned
kreker · 1 game
Razor
mangekyou · 1 game
Shadow Shaman
QBFY · 1 game
Slardaroften banned
Batyuk · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
542 picks · 743 bans
Tusk
486 picks · 346 bans
Dragon Knight
464 picks · 638 bans
Centaur Warrunner
440 picks · 542 bans
Shadow Demon
372 picks · 644 bans
Gyrocopter
359 picks · 551 bans
Mars
344 picks · 463 bans
Hoodwink
341 picks · 152 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 64%
Hero pool strength58% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total65% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:24
Zero Tenacity 55%Pasika UA 45%
The model gave 55% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Pasika UA in 33:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaKami
ClinkzCrystallize
UnderlordNefrit
BrewmasterBatyuk
TinyWorick
Treant Protectorkreker
WindrangerdEsire
RingmasterQBFY
Shadow DemonMoOz
Game 2prediction correct46:17
Zero Tenacity 58%Pasika UA 42%
The model gave 58% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 42:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AbaddonKami
ClinkzCrystallize
BrewmasterNefrit
UnderlordBatyuk
ViperWorick
Dazzlekreker
Spirit BreakerdEsire
Shadow ShamanQBFY
RingmasterMoOz
Game 3prediction correct
Zero Tenacity 65%Pasika UA 35%
The model gave 65% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity.
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 65%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3