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ESL One Birmingham 2026. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
TT Gamewin 2:1
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:1
the bugloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TT Game

No games played over 6 months.

the bug

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Boris · 5 games
20%
Pudge
Pudge
Newsham · 5 games
0%
Pugna
Pugna
empyrean5 · 5 games
40%
Disruptor
Disruptor
empyrean5 · 4 games
25%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 4 games
0%
Phoenix
Phoenix
empyrean5 · 4 games
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
iAnnihilate · 4 games
25%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
iAnnihilate · 4 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
555 picks · 738 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
496 picks · 353 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
472 picks · 643 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
444 picks · 544 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
378 picks · 635 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
365 picks · 546 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
356 picks · 167 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
354 picks · 116 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 25%
Hero pool strength62% TT Game
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% the bug
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:17
TT Game 44%the bug 56%
The model gave 56% on the bug — the game was taken by the bug in 39:56.
Game 2prediction missed
TT Game 44%the bug 56%
The model gave 56% on the bug — the game was taken by TT Game.
Game 3prediction missed
TT Game 44%the bug 56%
The model gave 56% on the bug — the game was taken by TT Game.
Model check result
Model favoritethe bug · 56%
Series resultTT Game 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3