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EPL Masters I. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spirit Academywin 2:1
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:1
PuckChamploss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit Academy

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Aidar · 19 games
37%
Lion
Lion
Aidar · 17 games
47%
Kunkka
Kunkka
86 · 13 games
31%
Largo
Largooften banned
kae · 12 games
42%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Aidar · 11 games
36%
Jakiro
Jakiro
kyford · 11 games
18%
Batrider
Batridersignature
86 · 10 games
60%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
kae · 10 games
40%

PuckChamp

Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Hyugadoto · 3 games
0%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
krol9ash · 3 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Hyugadoto · 2 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Gothic- · 2 games
0%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
gotthejuice · 2 games
0%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidoften banned
gotthejuice · 2 games
100%
Techies
Techies
Gothic- · 2 games
100%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
gotthejuice · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
503 picks · 361 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
407 picks · 243 bans
46%
Tiny
Tiny
348 picks · 358 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
336 picks · 632 bans
56%
Windranger
Windranger
324 picks · 234 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
310 picks · 410 bans
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
288 picks · 307 bans
46%
Bane
Bane
285 picks · 272 bans
62%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 44%
Hero pool strength52% PuckChamp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:38
Team Spirit Academy 43%PuckChamp 57%
The model gave 57% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy in 54:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Puck86
49% · 322 games44% · 57 games
Invokerdualrazee
Invoker
Largo
LargoBatyuk
49% · 172 games52% · 159 games
Shadow Fiendgotthejuice
Shadow Fiend
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeAidar
49% · 71 game49% · 172 games
Centaur Warrunnerkrol9ash
Centaur Warrunner
52% · 65 games
TechiesGothic-
Techies
59% · 112 games
BaneHyugadoto
Bane
Game 2prediction correct32:35
Team Spirit Academy 42%PuckChamp 58%
The model gave 58% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 1:02:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Brewmaster
BrewmasterBatyuk
50% · 130 games56% · 41 game
Invokerdualrazee
Invoker
Kunkka
Kunkka86
43% · 73 games50% · 73 games
Shadow Fiendgotthejuice
Shadow Fiend
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeAidar
50% · 80 games46% · 62 games
Centaur Warrunnerkrol9ash
Centaur Warrunner
52% · 69 games
Shadow DemonHyugadoto
Shadow Demon
60% · 38 games
TechiesGothic-
Techies
Game 3prediction missed47:21
Team Spirit Academy 43%PuckChamp 57%
The model gave 57% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy in 44:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Snapfire
Snapfire86
47% · 596 games53% · 162 games
Shadow Fiendgotthejuice
Shadow Fiend
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerBatyuk
50% · 484 games46% · 253 games
Pangolierdualrazee
Pangolier
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeAidar
52% · 158 games54% · 194 games
Slardarkrol9ash
Slardar
48% · 397 games
HoodwinkGothic-
Hoodwink
51% · 232 games
Shadow DemonHyugadoto
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 61%
Series resultTeam Spirit Academy 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3