DreamLeague Season 28. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionLFLooking for Orgloss 0:2
series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Heroicwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Looking for Org
Disruptor
Panda · 3 games
Muerta
payk · 3 games
Bristlebackoften banned
ILICH- · 2 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
ILICH- · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
PiPi · 2 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
payk · 2 games
Jakirooften banned
Panda · 2 games
Skywrath Mage
Matthew · 2 games
Heroic
Tusk
Scofield · 24 games
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 21 game
Enigmasignature
Wisper · 16 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Yuma · 16 games
Ursaoften banned
Yuma · 16 games
Abaddonoften banned
Yuma · 15 games
Bane
KJ · 15 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yuma · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
563 picks · 736 bans
Tusk
509 picks · 356 bans
Dragon Knight
481 picks · 652 bans
Centaur Warrunner
446 picks · 552 bans
Shadow Demon
377 picks · 625 bans
Snapfire
377 picks · 126 bans
Hoodwink
372 picks · 180 bans
Gyrocopter
371 picks · 542 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 51%
Hero pool strength51% Looking for Org
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:28
Looking for Org 34%Heroic 66%
The model gave 66% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 32:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopterpayk
UrsaYuma
TimbersawPiPi
TidehunterDavai
SlardarILICH-
TinyWisper
Skywrath MageMatthew
JakiroKJ
PugnaPanda
Spirit BreakerThiolicor
Game 2prediction correct14:32
Looking for Org 35%Heroic 65%
The model gave 65% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 36:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkzpayk
Phantom AssassinYuma
UnderlordILICH-
PhoenixWisper
ViperPiPi
SlardarDavai
Ogre MagiPanda
JakiroKJ
Skywrath MageMatthew
Spirit BreakerThiolicor
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 80%
Series resultHeroic 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2