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EPL Championship Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Inner Circleloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Se · 41 game
61%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 39 games
54%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Se · 30 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
dEsire · 27 games
59%
Underlord
Underlord
Nefrit · 27 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Nefrit · 25 games
68%
Tusk
Tusk
dEsire · 25 games
56%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Nefrit · 24 games
54%

Inner Circle

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 17 games
35%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Norma · 17 games
35%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 16 games
25%
Tusk
Tusk
Fernans · 15 games
40%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Fernans · 13 games
62%
Warlock
Warlock
flacko · 12 games
33%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Fernans · 11 games
18%
Sven
Sven
yowaai · 11 games
27%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
565 picks · 737 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
512 picks · 357 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
485 picks · 654 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
448 picks · 553 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
381 picks · 127 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
377 picks · 626 bans
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
375 picks · 180 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
373 picks · 542 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 32%
Hero pool strength59% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total71% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Zero Tenacity 71%Inner Circle 29%
The model gave 71% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity.
Game 2prediction correct
Zero Tenacity 71%Inner Circle 29%
The model gave 71% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity.
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 71%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2