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EPL Championship Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
The Outcastloss 0:2
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spirit Academywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

The Outcast

No games played over 6 months.

Team Spirit Academy

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Aidar · 12 games
17%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Aidar · 12 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
rubikon155 · 9 games
56%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
SunshineRR · 9 games
44%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
SunshineRR · 8 games
25%
Techies
Techies
Aidar · 8 games
50%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
rubikon155 · 7 games
29%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SunshineRR · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
563 picks · 733 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
511 picks · 359 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
485 picks · 657 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
450 picks · 551 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
386 picks · 127 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
379 picks · 622 bans
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
377 picks · 180 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
373 picks · 539 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 39%
Hero pool strength56% The Outcast
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Team Spirit Academy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
The Outcast 30%Team Spirit Academy 70%
The model gave 70% on Team Spirit Academy — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy.
Game 2prediction correct
The Outcast 30%Team Spirit Academy 70%
The model gave 70% on Team Spirit Academy — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit Academy · 70%
Series resultTeam Spirit Academy 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2