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EPL Championship Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarineloss 1:2
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Winter Bearwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Disruptor
Disruptor
Xakoda · 26 games
38%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mirele · 26 games
62%
Snapfire
Snapfire
sayuw · 25 games
48%
Tusk
Tusk
mrls · 25 games
36%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Mirele · 25 games
48%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 23 games
52%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Mirele · 23 games
39%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 22 games
50%

Winter Bear

Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Panda · 4 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Panda · 3 games
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Panda · 3 games
100%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Panda · 3 games
0%
Sand King
Sand King
Panda · 3 games
67%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Panda · 3 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Kaori · 2 games
100%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Kaori · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
566 picks · 731 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
513 picks · 360 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
485 picks · 657 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
451 picks · 550 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
389 picks · 131 bans
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
381 picks · 181 bans
53%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
377 picks · 620 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
374 picks · 540 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 46%
Hero pool strength52% Winter Bear
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Yellow Submarine 68%Winter Bear 32%
The model gave 68% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Winter Bear.
Game 2prediction correct
Yellow Submarine 68%Winter Bear 32%
The model gave 68% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine.
Game 3prediction missed
Yellow Submarine 68%Winter Bear 32%
The model gave 68% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Winter Bear.
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 68%
Series resultWinter Bear 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3