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DreamLeague Season 28. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 2:0
series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Estar Backsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 24 games
42%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 21 game
67%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Yuma · 16 games
44%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Wisper · 16 games
63%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Yuma · 16 games
81%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Yuma · 16 games
50%
Bane
Bane
KJ · 15 games
47%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Wisper · 15 games
47%

Estar Backs

Disruptor
Disruptor
Accel · 8 games
50%
Alchemist
Alchemist
bsK7- · 5 games
40%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Michael · 4 games
25%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Accel · 4 games
25%
Omniknight
Omniknight
bsK7- · 4 games
25%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Michael · 4 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Accel · 4 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Michael · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
565 picks · 728 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
513 picks · 356 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
486 picks · 661 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
450 picks · 552 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
394 picks · 134 bans
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
385 picks · 184 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
374 picks · 532 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
373 picks · 516 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 63%
Hero pool strength54% Heroic
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total92% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:16
Heroic 78%Estar Backs 22%
The model gave 78% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 44:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorYuma
48% · 17 games51% · 129 games
UrsabsK7-
Ursa
Invoker
InvokerWisper
45% · 52 games46% · 174 games
DisruptorAccel
Disruptor
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerDavai
55% · 161 game
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiKJ
45% · 30 games
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightThiolicor
61% · 43 games
Game 2prediction correct36:17
Heroic 76%Estar Backs 24%
The model gave 76% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 31:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaYuma
55% · 81 game56% · 302 games
Monkey KingbsK7-
Monkey King
Beastmaster
BeastmasterWisper
45% · 108 games52% · 173 games
ChenAccel
Chen
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritDavai
38% · 110 games
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanThiolicor
44% · 95 games
Marci
MarciKJ
47% · 81 game
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 92%
Series resultHeroic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2