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DreamLeague Season 28. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
1w Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Mira · 27 games
56%
Mars
Marsoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 22 games
59%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mikoto · 20 games
40%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Nightfall · 20 games
55%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Nightfall · 19 games
58%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Oli · 19 games
32%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Panto · 17 games
71%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 16 games
69%

1w Team

Puck
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 30 games
60%
Warlock
Warlock
kasane · 30 games
57%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Squad1x · 29 games
59%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 28 games
71%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 25 games
52%
Tiny
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 25 games
80%
Tusk
Tusk
swedenstrong · 21 game
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
kasane · 20 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
563 picks · 722 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
511 picks · 352 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
486 picks · 657 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
450 picks · 547 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
397 picks · 135 bans
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
386 picks · 184 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
375 picks · 528 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
373 picks · 516 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 62%
Hero pool strength55% 1w Team
Head-to-head5 – 0
Model total57% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:41
Aurora Gaming 54%1w Team 46%
The model gave 54% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 51:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaNightfall
47% · 233 games50% · 242 games
Templar AssassinMunkushi~
Templar Assassin
Timbersaw
TimbersawWs
51% · 186 games49% · 520 games
TinySquad1x
Tiny
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMikoto
57% · 414 games44% · 222 games
AxeSSS
Axe
Lion
LionMira
55% · 113 games43% · 177 games
Dark Willowswedenstrong
Dark Willow
Jakiro
JakiroKaori
53% · 390 games53% · 175 games
Ancient ApparitionRein
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction correct37:18
Aurora Gaming 53%1w Team 47%
The model gave 53% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 39:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
BroodmotherNightfall
48% · 23 games55% · 141 game
Shadow FiendMunkushi~
Shadow Fiend
Timbersaw
TimbersawWs
52% · 136 games47% · 28 games
OmniknightSSS
Omniknight
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMikoto
56% · 304 games46% · 460 games
TinySquad1x
Tiny
Dark Willow
Dark WillowMira
43% · 133 games54% · 109 games
Keeper of the Lightswedenstrong
Keeper of the Light
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanKaori
48% · 216 games49% · 74 games
LichRein
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 57%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2