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DreamLeague Season 28. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
x5 Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BTC Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

x5 Gaming

Sniper
Sniperoften banned
Pamplona · 4 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Hermit · 3 games
33%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Hermit · 2 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
mini-` · 1 game
0%
Muerta
Muerta
mini-` · 1 game
0%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Pamplona · 1 game
0%

BTC Gaming

Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Mnz · 1 game
100%
Alchemist
Alchemist
Mnz · 1 game
100%
Bane
Bane
Prada · 1 game
100%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Prada · 1 game
0%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Prada · 1 game
100%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Lumière · 1 game
0%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Mjz · 1 game
0%
Huskar
Huskaroften banned
Lumière · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
563 picks · 715 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
507 picks · 351 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
486 picks · 657 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
450 picks · 545 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
397 picks · 135 bans
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
386 picks · 184 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
373 picks · 523 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
373 picks · 516 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% BTC Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% BTC Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:20
x5 Gaming 49%BTC Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on BTC Gaming — the game was taken by x5 Gaming in 34:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Underlord
UnderlordHermit
46% · 71 game51% · 64 games
Nature's ProphetLumière
Nature's Prophet
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterPamplona
60% · 52 games71% · 3 games
ClinkzMnz
Clinkz
57% · 13 games
Nyx AssassinMjz
Nyx Assassin
35% · 43 games
DisruptorPrada
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct27:29
x5 Gaming 47%BTC Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on BTC Gaming — the game was taken by BTC Gaming in 43:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Brewmaster
BrewmasterHermit
47% · 51 game55% · 23 games
Nature's ProphetLumière
Nature's Prophet
Sniper
SniperPamplona
50% · 41 gamelittle data
ClinkzMnz
Clinkz
61% · 15 games
ChenPrada
Chen
45% · 54 games
TuskMjz
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed32:16
x5 Gaming 47%BTC Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on BTC Gaming — the game was taken by x5 Gaming in 33:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tidehunter
TidehunterHermit
51% · 162 games51% · 74 games
MuertaMnz
Muerta
Weaver
WeaverPamplona
44% · 91 gamelittle data
NecrophosLumière
Necrophos
51% · 62 games
RingmasterMjz
Ringmaster
55% · 117 games
TuskPrada
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteBTC Gaming · 52%
Series resultx5 Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3