DreamLeague Season 28. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:0series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Power Rangersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1w Team
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 29 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Squad1x · 29 games
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 28 games
Warlock
kasane · 28 games
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 25 games
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 25 games
Disruptor
kasane · 20 games
Pugnasignature
kasane · 20 games
Power Rangers
Jakirooften banned
Hduo · 2 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 2 games
Viperoften banned
nicky`cool · 2 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Alberkaaa · 1 game
Chenoften banned
Hduo · 1 game
Clinkzoften banned
nesfeer · 1 game
Clockwerk
not me · 1 game
Dark Willow
not me · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
565 picks · 712 bans
Tusk
507 picks · 352 bans
Dragon Knight
483 picks · 658 bans
Centaur Warrunner
449 picks · 545 bans
Snapfire
404 picks · 137 bans
Hoodwink
391 picks · 185 bans
Mars
375 picks · 517 bans
Gyrocopter
373 picks · 526 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct48:39
1w Team 66%Power Rangers 34%
The model gave 66% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 1:17:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckSquad1x
Dragon Knightnesfeer
LifestealerMunkushi~
Batridernicky`cool
WarlockRein
KunkkaAlberkaaa
AxeSSS
Treant ProtectorHduo
Dark Willowswedenstrong
Shadow Demonqueezy
Game 2prediction correct45:23
1w Team 68%Power Rangers 32%
The model gave 68% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 42:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautMunkushi~
Templar Assassinnesfeer
Storm SpiritSquad1x
Batridernicky`cool
UnderlordSSS
KunkkaAlberkaaa
WarlockRein
Shadow Demonqueezy
Tuskswedenstrong
Crystal MaidenHduo
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 81%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2